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News | October 12, 2015

Wall Street Journal picked up Paper TI Researchers on Number Preferences

The Wall Street Journal has picked up the ‘Number Preferences in Lotteries’ paper written by TI fellow Martijn van den Ass, TI alumni Dennie van Dolder (University of Nottingham), Rogier Potter van Loon (EUR), and TI PhD student Tong Wang. The column ‘In Lotteries, Luck Number Will Only Win You Less’ will appear in tomorrow’s WSJ print edition. The papers by the TI researchers is available on SSRN.

Abstract Paper
We explore people’s preferences for numbers in large proprietary data sets from two different lottery games. We find that players spread their four or six numbers relatively evenly across the possible range, and that they chase (infrequent players) or avoid (frequent players) winning numbers from recent draws. Furthermore, players are attracted towards numbers in the center of the choice form and avoid the edges, and they tend to choose numbers that are readily available or likely to be “primed” in their short-term memory. Personally relevant numbers are favored, and combinations of numbers are being formed with an eye for symmetry and aesthetics. Altogether, our results suggest that number preferences in lotteries are especially driven by joy seeking, attention, and misunderstanding of randomness.